The Ghost of Thucydides on Modern Diplomacy
From Pericles to Trump and Carney, and from the Melians to Zelenskyy
The Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carney’s reference to Thucydides in his speech on January 20, 2026, at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2026 in Davos, reminded me of one of my first stacks. Carney began his speech by saying:
“It seems that every day we’re reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry, that the rules-based order is fading, that the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer what they must.
And this aphorism of Thucydides is presented as inevitable, as the natural logic of international relations reasserting itself.”
About a year earlier, in March 2025, the same “aphorism” circulated after the awkward visit of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to the White House, used by some to justify the humiliating way he was received. Echoing the famous response of the Athenians—”the strong do what their power permits, and the weak suffer what they must”—to the Melians, they were essentially telling Zelensky to “shut up and deal with it”, as he was backed into a corner after 3 years of successful but exhausting defense against the Russians.
If you don’t know the story behind the notorious aphorism, allow me to briefly recap: in 416 BC, during the Peloponnesian War (Athens vs. Sparta), the Athenians arrived at the island of Melos trying to force it into the Athenian alliance. There, they exchanged views that the law of the strong always determines the fate of the weak. The Melians tried with arguments about justice and morality to maintain their neutrality, to persuade the Athenians to accept them as friends rather than enslave them—as they saw forced accession to the alliance. Ultimately, however—with help from some Melians who disagreed with their leaders’ uncompromising stance and expressed opposition during the prolonged siege—all the Melians were massacred, women and children enslaved, and Melos was depopulated until resettled by 500 Athenian colonists.
I think it’s valuable to look at an excerpt from the original Athenians-Melians dialogue:
5.89. ATHENIANS: “So we too won’t speak with fine phrases and long speeches that won’t convince you, or claim that we justly hold our hegemony because we defeated the Persians, or that we’re now campaigning against you because we’re wronged. (...) We expect to pursue more of what is possible than what both of us truly have in mind, since you know and we know that in human judgment justice is reckoned when equal power exists to enforce it, and when it doesn’t, the strong do what their power permits and the weak suffer what they must.“
90. MELIANS: “As we at least believe, it is useful (we must speak of it, since you set that basis for our discussion—leaving aside justice and speaking of interest) that you not abolish this common good, but that reasonable and just things exist for whoever is in danger at any time, and that he benefits somehow if he persuades, even if his arguments don’t fall within strict justice. And this is no less in your interest than ours, for if defeated, you could become an example to others to impose the greatest punishment on you.”
91. ATH. “We don’t worry about the end of our hegemony, if it will ever be overthrown, because those who exercise hegemony over others, like the Lacedaemonians (Ed.’s note: the Spartans), are not dangerous to the defeated (besides, our dispute isn’t with the Lacedaemonians), but subjects are dangerous if they ever rise up and defeat their rulers. As for that, let us handle the risk. What we want to make clear to you now is that we are here for our hegemony’s interest, and what we’ll say now aims at your city’s salvation, because we want to rule you without trouble and for both our interests that you be saved.”
(Thucydides, Histories, Book 5.89-91)
Is that the big picture though?
Behind the paywall:
What is the famous Thucydides Trap? (original text and analysis)
How did the Athenians become so powerful and arrogant? Their victories in the great war and the “preemptive” alliance they organized that turned into hegemony.
We revisit Thucydides’ original text: The goods of liberal society according to Pericles and the inescapable human nature across the ages according to Thucydides.
Why the slaughter of the weak Melians by the arrogant Athenians isn’t the big picture. We follow the cosmic and moral law governing human experience in Ancient Greece that explains the fate of those who get carried away: hubris, ate, nemesis, tisis.
Why is Thucydides considered the archetype of modern historical science?
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